Finding · Government debt valuation
What do people believe supports Treasury value?
Respondents attribute most government debt value to sources other than future fiscal backing, especially global demand for a safe and liquid asset.
Working paper · August 2026Benchmark reconstruction
Under the benchmark reconstruction, future primary surpluses account for less than one-sixth of perceived government debt value.
Respondents allocate 100 value points across six sources. Across samples, global safe-asset demand receives 25.7–29.5 points and future primary surpluses receive 14.3–16.0.
Range across the three samples under the benchmark reconstruction.
Source: benchmark 100-point reconstruction; sources marked “little or no support” are assigned zero.
Interactive · Perceived sources of value
How respondents decompose the value of U.S. government debt
Select a sample, then click any segment or legend item to compare that source across groups.Investors worldwide value U.S. government debt for its safety and liquidity. It receives the largest average share in every sample.
Direct source ranking
Safe-asset demand receives broad support; primary surpluses do not.
Respondents identify sources providing the greatest support and those providing little or no support. Safe-asset demand ranks first in every sample; primary surpluses have negative net support in all three.
Source and limitation: direct greatest-support and little-or-no-support selections from the survey. Respondents could select multiple sources, so the figure ranks support for each source rather than dividing responses into mutually exclusive categories.
Interactive · Net support
Which sources respondents endorse or dismiss
58.0% name it among the greatest sources of support; 13.0% say it provides little or no support. Sample: Bond investors, N = 984.