Findings · Government debt sustainability

How much fiscal risk do people perceive?

The survey separates perceived crisis probability from beliefs about current debt, a sustainable debt ceiling, and remaining fiscal room.

Working paper · August 2026

See survey design

Perceived crisis risk

Average perceived ten-year crisis probability exceeds 40% in every sample.

The average perceived probability of a U.S. debt crisis within ten years is 54.2% among voters, 46.2% among bond investors, and 41.2% among respondents with graduate training in economics or finance.

Source and limitation: sample means and 95% confidence intervals from stated beliefs. The survey defines a crisis as a sudden and severe decline in government-debt value leading to default or very high inflation.

Interactive · Perceived fiscal risk

How risk beliefs differ across samples

Choose a measure. Click any group or timing bar for its exact estimate.

050%100%

Selected groupRegistered voters

Ten-year crisis probability54.2%

Voters report the highest average ten-year crisis probability.

Aggregate sample estimates from the paper. Probability and concern views show means and 95% confidence intervals; timing shows response shares.

Perceived fiscal position

Perceived fiscal room differs sharply across samples.

Voters report the least remaining headroom and the highest crisis probability. Respondents with graduate training in economics or finance report the most headroom and the lowest crisis probability, with bond investors between them.

Source and limitation: the panels follow the paper’s different reference conventions. Their displayed means should not be subtracted from one another and are not structural estimates of fiscal capacity.

Interactive · Perceived fiscal position

Respondents disagree about both current debt and remaining room

Select a sample to follow it across the three separately constructed measures.

Perceived current debt/GDPFull-sample pre-treatment mean

Maximum sustainable debt/GDPMean among respondents who were shown the common 100% reference

Perceived fiscal headroomFull-sample mean relative to the reference shown

Selected groupRegistered voters

Perceived current debt/GDP59.6 % of GDP

Maximum sustainable debt/GDP101.2 % of GDP

Perceived fiscal headroom9.5 pp

The displayed measures use the paper’s stated reference conventions. Because their estimation samples and references differ, the three displayed means should not be subtracted from one another.

Survey means from the working paper. Current debt is measured before treatment. The ceiling uses respondents shown the common 100% debt/GDP reference. Headroom is computed relative to the reference shown in each respondent’s ceiling question and is not a structural debt-capacity estimate.

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Paper authorsRicardo Delao and Wenhao Li