Safe-asset demand leads
All three samples give global safe-asset demand the largest average share of government debt value.
View valuation findingsSurvey evidence
How people understand the value and sustainability of government debt
The survey compares screened samples of bond investors and registered voters with respondents who hold graduate degrees in economics or finance. It measures beliefs about debt backing, crisis risk, and reported action.
Working paper · August 2026985bond investors
1,001registered voters
247respondents with graduate training in economics or finance
Three connected findings
From perceived value to risk and action
Voters perceive the greatest risk
Voters assign a 54.2% average probability to a debt crisis within ten years, above investors and trained respondents.
View sustainability findingsConcern often stops short of decisive action
Debt concern is widespread, but among voters expressing concern, only 8.8% say it was decisive for their reported past voting choices.
View decision findingsStudy resources
Results and methods
Survey resultsWave 1
Valuation, sustainability, and decisions
Evidence on perceived sources of value, crisis risk, fiscal room, portfolio responses, and voting decisions.
Explore the survey findingsMethodsStudy details
Samples, measures, and experiment
Recruitment, representativeness, exclusions, survey sequence, weighting, and the randomized information treatment.
Review data and methods