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Fiscal expectations

Tracking how the fiscal outlook changes in real time

The project reconstructs 108 quarterly fiscal paths from 1999Q1 through 2025Q4 using the latest CBO baseline and legislation scored by each date. It then asks how professional forecasts and Treasury valuations respond to the same fiscal news.

Research in progress

The central graph · Projections versus outcomes

Realized deficits exceed earlier projected paths in nearly 90% of matched comparisons.

Each thin line is an end-of-quarter expected primary-deficit path based on the latest CBO baseline and legislation scored by then; the dark line records the later outcome. Realized deficits are larger in 821 of 914 matched comparisons (89.8%). The average gap rises from $337 billion one year ahead to $1.25 trillion ten years ahead. Excluding fiscal years 2020–2022, the share is 698 of 788 (88.6%).

How to read the graph: highlight any quarterly vintage, then move across its fiscal years to compare the earlier path with the realized outcome. The gap includes legislation enacted later and subsequent economic or technical revisions, so it is not a pure CBO forecasting error.

Source and limitation: 108 end-of-quarter paths constructed from the latest CBO baseline and legislation scored by each date, matched to realized primary deficits. Positive gaps combine later policy changes with subsequent economic and technical revisions.

Interactive · Projections versus outcomes

A new expected primary-deficit path every quarter

Trace all 108 real-time expected fiscal paths, then highlight any vintage and fiscal year.
Representative paths
Exceptional fiscal years

Swipe across the chart to follow the policy episodes and later fiscal years.

Quarterly expected primary-deficit paths and realized U.S. primary deficitsOne thin line for each quarter from 1999Q1 through 2025Q4. The selected expectation path is highlighted and the realized primary deficit is shown with a dark line.−$500B$0$500B$1T$1.5T$2T$2.5T$3T20002005201020152020202520302035Primary deficit, $ billionsFiscal year2014Q1, FY2014: $362B deficit2014Q1, FY2015: $206B deficit2014Q1, FY2016: $209B deficit2014Q1, FY2017: $174B deficit2014Q1, FY2018: $159B deficit2014Q1, FY2019: $183B deficit2014Q1, FY2020: $200B deficit2014Q1, FY2021: $217B deficit2014Q1, FY2022: $275B deficit2014Q1, FY2023: $226B deficit2014Q1, FY2024: $193B deficit
Quarterly expectation paths, 1999–2025Selected pathRealized primary deficit
Expectation formed2014Q1
Projected FY2019$183B deficit
Realized FY2019$608B deficit

For the FY2015–FY2019 outcomes, all before COVID-19, realized primary deficits exceeded this path in every year. The gap widened from $13 billion in FY2015 to $426 billion in FY2019. Drag either slider, or point to a dot on the highlighted path.

Each thin line is the primary-deficit path formed at the end of one quarter from the latest CBO baseline and legislation scored by then. The dark line is the realized primary deficit.

Fiscal backdrop · CBO long-term outlooks

Every CBO long-term outlook since 2013 has projected a primary deficit.

The 2025 CBO curve averages a projected primary deficit of about 1.9% of GDP over years 10 through 30.

1.9% of GDP2025 average projected primary deficit, years 10–30
Since 2013every outlook projects a long-run primary deficit

Source and limitation: CBO long-term budget outlooks. The comparison summarizes projected primary balances and does not identify why successive outlooks differ.

Interactive · CBO long-term outlooks

Projected primary balances by release

Change the averaging window, then select a release to read its projection.
Mar. 20251.87% of GDP
Projected balancePrimary deficit

Average primary balance over projection years 10 through 30. Every release from 2013 onward is below zero in all three windows.

CBO long-term budget outlooks. Values are average projected primary balances as a share of GDP; negative values indicate primary deficits.
Project authorsKristy Jansen, Chris Leng, and Wenhao Li