Data & methods
Surveys reveal what people believe. CBO projections trace the official current-law path. Professional forecasts show private expectations, and market prices show how those expectations are valued.
Evidence map
Together, the sources connect public beliefs about government debt with the projected fiscal path, private expectations, and Treasury valuation.
Voters, investors, and trained respondents report what supports debt value, how much crisis risk they perceive, and whether concern changes their choices. The valuation results use the paper’s benchmark reconstruction: sources marked as providing little or no support receive zero points, and the “All others” points are divided equally among the remaining non-top sources.
Reveals how people understand government debt.Each enacted law’s expected revenue and outlay effects are traced by fiscal year and reconciled with successive CBO baselines.
Reveals which laws change the expected fiscal path, when, and through which budget component.Professional forecasters report expected interest rates, inflation, growth, and fiscal outcomes after new information arrives.
Reveals how private expectations respond to fiscal news.Interest rates and asset prices reflect expected fiscal outcomes together with compensation for risk, maturity, and liquidity.
Reveals how investors value government liabilities.Current evidence
The current results combine Wave 1 survey evidence with successive CBO long-term budget outlooks.
From beliefs to valuation
Survey beliefs identify the mechanisms people have in mind. Fiscal projections and private forecasts trace expected resources, while market prices show how investors value the resulting government liabilities.