Findings

A connected view of government debt and the fiscal outlook

The findings connect four questions: what supports government debt value, how much fiscal risk people perceive, when those beliefs enter portfolios and votes, and how official fiscal projections compare with later outcomes.

01 · Government debt valuation

What supports Treasury value?

25.7–29.5value points assigned to global safe-asset demand

Compare six perceived sources of value across bond investors, registered voters, and respondents with graduate training in economics or finance.

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02 · Government debt sustainability

How much fiscal risk do people perceive?

41.2–54.2%average ten-year crisis probability across samples

Examine crisis probabilities, expected timing, current debt beliefs, sustainable debt ceilings, and perceived fiscal room.

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03 · Portfolio and voting decisions

When does concern become action?

28.0%of concerned investors report a concrete past portfolio adjustment

8.8%of concerned voters say debt concerns were decisive for a past vote

The investor and voter percentages describe different decisions and should not be read as a common measure of responsiveness.

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04 · Fiscal expectations

How do expected fiscal paths compare with outcomes?

89.8%of 914 matched comparisons have a larger realized deficit than projected

Follow quarterly CBO-based fiscal paths from 1999Q1 through 2025Q4 and compare each projection with later realized outcomes.

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