What supports Treasury value?
The six-source valuation decomposition and the contrast between safe-asset demand and future primary surpluses.
Explore valuationGovernment debt survey
Beliefs about value, sustainability, and decisions
The survey compares screened samples of bond investors and registered voters with respondents who hold graduate degrees in economics or finance across three connected questions.
Working paper · August 2026Evidence by question
Three views of government debt beliefs
How much risk and fiscal room do respondents perceive?
Crisis probability, crisis timing, concern, current debt beliefs, sustainable debt ceilings, and fiscal headroom.
Explore sustainabilityWhen do fiscal concerns change decisions?
Reported portfolio and voting decisions plus the randomized fiscal-information treatment.
Explore portfolio and voting decisions